Succession at the US Federal Reserve: a policy inflection point

By Thomas Perfumo, Kraken Chief Economist CME-listed Fed Funds futures are pricing nearly 70% probability that the US Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), the group responsible for setting benchmark interest rates, will leave rates unchanged through the end of 2026. This is despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty and volatile market conditions. Markets are pricing in policy complacency at the FOMC even after Jerome Powell’s term as chairman ends in May. This positioning presents an opportunity to the extent new leadership moves to meaningfully shift near-term policy vision. Let’s examine what FOMC policy consensus looks like today. The recent March 2026 FOMC meeting describes it well: reactive, inflation-sensitive, and cautious. The pertinent question is whether this status quo survives a change in leadership. Answering this requires a review of current committee dynamics and a cl